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MicroVision: $150 stock when acquired for $20 Billion?

9/13/2022 Anant Goel

 

MicroVision's Technology Enables OEMs to Achieve True Highway-Pilot Functionality

REDMOND, WA / ACCESSWIRE / September 13, 2022 / MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in MEMS-based solid-state automotive lidar and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) solutions, today announced that its MAVIN™ DR dynamic view lidar system is now supported on the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX platform.

MAVIN DR, MicroVision's lidar sensor featuring a dynamic field of view, delivers high resolution at all ranges and with low latency, enabling new ADAS safety features to achieve true highway-pilot functionality that OEMs demand.

NVIDIA DRIVE AGX is a scalable, open, centralized software-defined compute platform that serves as the AI brain for highly automated and fully self-driving vehicles. It delivers industry-leading performance for the development and production of functionally safe AI-powered cars, trucks, robotaxis and more.

"MicroVision's unique solution provides data with minimal latency and detects the velocity of objects both laterally and axially to understand paths and predict trajectories," said Glenn Schuster, senior director of sensor ecosystems at NVIDIA. "With MicroVision as part of our world-class NVIDIA DRIVE ecosystem partner network, OEM customers can feel confident knowing they have access to qualified leading-edge sensors that meet the exacting requirements they expect for their safe ADAS and autonomous systems."

In further collaboration with NVIDIA, MicroVision's MAVIN DR is also supported on NVIDIA DRIVE Sim, a simulation platform built for autonomous vehicle development and validation.

I can’t tell you what people expect from this NVIDIA partnership, but I wouldn’t look for an announcement that the company made an agreement with Tier1 OEMs. I wouldn't look for an announcement that the company was sold. I wouldn’t look for an announcement that someone took an equity stake. I wouldn't look for an announcement that MAVIN™ DR was announced the best LiDAR. In my opinion these are not realistic expectations and may not happen at or after the German Expo. I have known MicroVision for over 20 years, and quick deals and announcements are not in its DNA and not in our KARMA.

However, I would look for an update on all of the relevant topics with a positive spin… that’s the new MicroVision where the dilution of (16 million shares allocated for employee options/rewards to bring the total shares count to 165 million) was done before the NVIDIA partnership and not afterwards an accomplishment as has been the case over the past 18 years.

I expect MVIS stock to move forward and not backwards. I would NOT expect that everything is status quo. MicroVision of today is an energetic, vibrant and a wealthy company with a market cap of over $750 million-- ouch down from recent 2.5 billion, a historical high. Today’s MicroVision has MAVIN™ DR, the best in class LiDAR Sensor and Perception software in the 10 Trillion market, ready to sell. And for all we know they could be in advance stages of testing, integration, negotiations and contracting. On top of that, MicroVision has three other MAVIN™ LiDAR products (Short range, Midrange and Long range) and the projection and interactive projection technologies for sale.

So, if you own the stock now at the current price and we find out that things are improving and progressing well, why would you sell?

I would look for a mention that we have over $100 million cash going into 3rd Qtr. I would expect that MAVIN™ DR is on target (both Spec and Schedule) and some key test milestones have improved. I would expect that we have multiple companies conducting testing of MAVIN™ DR and some others are doing due diligence toward acquiring the company.

MicroVision: Why a $150 stock when acquired for $20 Billion?

Real billion dollar ideas have trillion dollar market size, they are scalable, and leverage the drivers of growth to go viral or global.

In my last research on MicroVision (NASDAQ: MVIS), I introduced this 20 year old high-tech company that is at the cusp of acquisition by a major technology company. In the last few weeks, MVIS stock price has gone up by 40% [from $3 to over $4.25] on well qualified speculations. Now it is trading in the $4.25 to $5 range giving new investors the opportunity to take position; for the future of $70 to $150 dollar trading range in the next 12-months or so... depending on the acquisition price of $10 billion or $20 billion.

Here's the short answer...

MAVIN™ DR is MicroVision’s best in class LiDAR technology product in the 10 Trillion dollar market, and each of the Six other LBS core technology verticals can spawn Trillion dollar markets of the future. Considering the diversity of its product line, built around the LBS core technology over the last 20 years, and protected by it's IP and 430 patents, each core vertical can spawn markets worth trillions, and be worth billions in an acquisition or a merger.

Why sell the company or merge with a deep pocket Tier 1 Technology partner...

At low volumes, the cost of components that MicroVision sells to its Tier 1 partners is 5 to 10 times higher than what it is sold for in anticipation of large quantities... and losing money on each component sold is what has shaped the company's past blunders losing millions of dollars each quarter for the last 15 years.

Finally, when MicroVision decided to sell the company, or to sell one or all of its 7 core vertical engines-- that can spawn trillion dollar markets, is the right decision. Under the leadership and stewardship of a deep pocket Tier 1 technology partner from the FAMGA gang, or the major automotive Tier1 OEMs, can truly realize the potential of MicroVision technology, and bring hundred of products to the market that will be sold in billion units per year.

In the last two years, MVIS stock price has gone up by 15--fold [from 25 cents to over $4.30] on qualified speculations. Now it is trading in the $4.20 to $5 range giving new investors the opportunity to take position; for the future of $70 to $150 dollar trading range in the next 12- months or so... depending on the acquisition price of $10 billion or $20 billion.

What to expect from sale or merger of MicroVision...

Over the last 3 decades, the FAMGA tech giants — Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Apple — have collectively made 770 acquisitions. Even amid the Covid-19 pandemic, some have continued to write checks, with Apple being the most active acquirer in 2020 to date among them.

This FAMGA group of acquirers has deep pockets. Some of their biggest checks have been written for high-profile companies such as career platform LinkedIn (acquired by Microsoft for $26.2B), chat app WhatsApp (Facebook for $22B), and video-sharing platform YouTube (Google for $1.7B).

Luminar Technologies (LAZR) went public and the stock price at $40 dollars more than doubled in two days as a public company, with a market cap of over $14 billion… and made its co-founder CEO Austin Russell a billionaire ─ at the age of 25. Luminar specializes in making Lidar sensors for the automotive sector that will be used in the development of autonomous vehicles.

However, the keys to several future technologies are being held by an older company MicroVision that was always ahead of its time. MicroVision (MVIS), founded in 1993, is most famous for their Micro Electro Mechanical systems (MEMs) and Laser Beam Scanning (LBS) technology that is protected by over 430 patents and dozens of Trade Secrets..

MicroVision’s automotive Lidar will be packaged in a solid-state module that is smaller, cheaper and more versatile than potential competitors like Luminar and Velodyne.

Autonomous vehicles of the future will utilize MicroVision’s Lidar because it is a superior “Best in Class” technology compared to Luminar and Velodyne; and due to its small size, 280M range, and point cloud density of 20 million points per second. MAVIN product family enables driver safety, addressing the need to see farther, with greater clarity, and respond faster to emerging situations. It has been designed for Tier1 OEMs and engineered to complement OEM supply chains.

As an investor you know change equals opportunity… and the bigger the change, the bigger the opportunity. The next few years are going to be either the most interesting, exciting, and lucrative years for you or you’re going to be left behind.

Change can mean big profits for investors getting in on the biggest changes early.

These two sectors -- artificial intelligence and TaaS -- are all seeing massive changes and we’re just starting to see their impact in the world.

Historically, when you just start to see these changes is the best time to buy. And it’s why in a few years you’ll be kicking yourself for not jumping on them when you had the chance.

Best regards,



 

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